CRISIS-RESPONSIVE TRANSFORMATION
Property is one of the core deep codes of our everyday life: often invisible, overlooked or seen as a near-natural law.
But now, crises are bringing property to the fore. Faced with an unprecedented complexity and entanglement of systemic risks, externalities, and value creation in today’s world, property as a means of governance is increasingly falling short.
To help us prepare for deepening and emerging crises, we need to delve deeper into the multifaceted challenges of property and build shared understanding and urgency.
We need to rethink property and its role in system responsiveness and resilience, and its potential to drive wider transformational change.
This digital tool maps critical global risks and their interplay with property and ownership.
It serves as a sensemaking tool to anticipate and respond to crises at a system level and identify potential solutions, lead environments, and coalitions to build real-world demonstrations of property futures.
It is intended as a living document. We will be continually evolving our risk mapping and exploring potential spaces for property innovation.
Types of Crisis:
Climate and Environmental Impact
Widespread Crop Failures and Global Food Crisis
Simultaneous crop failures in key producing regions due to climate change, soil depletion, pests, and diseases, potentially leading to global food shortages and price spikes. This vulnerability of global food production systems to environmental and biological threats underscores the risk of a global food crisis.
Governance and Regulatory Challenges
Urban Flooding Due to Climate Crisis and Inadequate Infrastructure
Escalating urban flooding issues due to climate change impacts and inadequate infrastructure, leading to significant urban challenges and displacement.
Economic and Market Dynamics
Sustained Inflation and Cost of Living Crisis
Prolonged increase of prices of goods and services will decrease purchasing power, potentially resulting in a cost of living crisis for many.
Climate and Environmental Impact
Wetlands and Peatlands Ecological Breakdown
The loss and breakdown of wetlands and peatlands, crucial for biodiversity, carbon sequestration, and flood control, due to human activities and climate change.
Governance and Regulatory Challenges
Challenge to Conventional Intellectual Property Rights by Generative AI
Legal and ethical challenges arising from the use of Generative AI in creating content that may infringe on existing intellectual property rights or challenge the traditional notions of authorship and creativity.
Economic and Market Dynamics
Commercial Real Estate Market Collapse
A sharp downturn in commercial property values and utility, causing widespread market destabilization and economic repercussions.
Societal and Community Welfare
Large-Scale Land Acquisition by (Foreign) Investors
Investors acquiring large tracts of land in low-income and less regulated countries, often driven by the increasing value and need for land, leading to conflicts over land rights and usage.
Societal and Community Welfare
Mass Surveillance and Monopolization of Data
Advanced technologies such as facial recognition, big data analysis being used in combination with physical infrastructures (cameras, etc) for controlling and monitoring the population. Spans both state surveillance practices and corporate accumulation of personal data on a massive scale.
Economic and Market Dynamics
Asset Bubble Bursts and Market Crashes
Prices of assets such as real estate, stocks, cryptocurrencies and others could grow increasingly detached from the real economy, resulting in a sharp decline in demand and prices, followed by sharp economic downturns.
Economic and Market Dynamics
Innovation Stagnation Due to Stringent Intellectual Property Laws
Progress in crucial technologies and medicine is hindered by stringent IP laws and patent disputes.
Climate and Environmental Impact
Rare Materials Monopolization and Geopolitical Tensions
The monopolization and concentration of rare minerals vital for renewable energy technologies lead to geopolitical tensions and environmental degradation.
Climate and Environmental Impact
Critical Water Shortages
Persistent droughts combined with rising demand for water resources result in critical shortages, affecting agriculture, industry, and drinking water supplies.
Societal and Community Welfare
Mass Unemployment Due to AI and Robotics Breakthroughs
Widespread job losses due to the rapid advancement and integration of AI and robotics in various industries.
Political Stability
Disinformation Campaigns and Spread of Misinformation
The use of various tactics: (social) media manipulation, deep fakes, conspiracy theories, fake news, astroturfing to spread misinformation which can influence elections, public opinion and behavior, and financial markets.
Climate and Environmental Impact
Mass Migration Due to Loss of Habitable Niche Zones
Large-scale human migration triggered by the loss of habitable areas due to climate crisis, such as rising sea levels and extreme weather events.
Climate and Environmental Impact
Environmental Hazards from Industrial Practices
Industrial practices, including fracking, fossil fuel extraction, agricultural activities, and nuclear waste disposal contribute to widespread environmental pollution. Chemical spills and emissions in these processes pose significant hazards, including water contamination, air pollution, and soil degradation.
Economic and Market Dynamics
Housing Affordability Crisis
Escalating housing prices and a persistent underinvestment in the development and maintenance of supportive housing, leading to widespread housing unaffordability.
Economic and Market Dynamics
Widespread Housing Insurance Crisis Impact
A crisis of widespread mortgage defaults, driven not only by uninsurable homes in the face of extreme weather but also exacerbated by rising energy costs and a general cost of living crisis.
Societal and Community Welfare
Growing Employment and Wealth Gap
Declining return on labor vs capital, coupled with a deterioration in job quality — including AI-related jobs emerging as a category of unprotected and undervalued work — contributes to a widening wealth gap and stagnant social mobility, posing a threat to the economic security of large segments of the population.
National Security Threat
Cyberwarfare and Digital Weapons of Mass Destabilization
Cyberattacks on critical infrastructure such as power grids, water supply systems, healthcare system, supply chain - intended to cause mass destabilization (may or may not involve 'destruction' in traditional sense).
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